By Susan Abbott Gidel
While Florida is on hurricane watch as Milton heads its way, the S&P 500 is under a Saturn watch that could mean a peak in the index is nearby. Specifically, transiting Saturn conjoins the first-trade Sun of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index on October 10, 2024 for the second of three exact connections. The S&P 500 natal Sun from when it was launched on March 4, 1957 stands at 13 Pisces 47.
This connection is rare because it takes Saturn about 29 years to go through all 12 signs of the zodiac. The last time Saturn conjoined the S&P 500 Sun was in 1995; previous to that, it was 1965-66. Saturn’s nature is to restrict or limit what it encounters, while the Sun’s nature is to shine brightly. Saturn conjunct the Sun dims that light, thus the potential for a market decline.
Here’s how that played out those two previous times as well as in April 2024, the first of three passes this time around.
Figure 1
1965-66
Three exact Saturn/SPX Sun conjunctions occurred in 1965-1966 (Figure 1) due to Saturn’s retrograde that year. The exact dates of the conjunction are shown in red above the red boxes, which indicate when Saturn was within 2 degrees of exact.
The first connection was on April 22, 1965 with the market still trending higher. However, it peaked while within the 2-degree orb on May 13 at 90.27. Within six weeks, the market had fallen nearly 10%. The second connection, on September 6, was in the middle of an uptrend from that low.
The S&P 500 peaked two days after the third conjunction that occurred on January 16, 1966 at 93.95. A double top at 94.06 on February 9 was the final high before falling 7% to a low on March 15 at 87.35. Interestingly, that low was just four days after the annual connection between the Sun and Saturn in the sky, on March 11.
Figure 2
1995
Transiting Saturn went past the S&P 500 Sun just once in 1995, on February 23 (Figure 2). The market peaked that day at 489, falling 2% to a low of 479 on March 7. Interestingly, that was the day of the annual Sun/Saturn conjunction.
Figure 3
2024
This year, transiting Saturn conjoins the S&P 500 Sun at 13 Pisces three times—April 2, October 10 and December 20.
On the first pass, the S&P 500 peaked two trading days earlier, on March 28. By April 19, the market had fallen 6% to the year-to-date low of 4953. Interestingly, that was a Friday, the closest trading day to a typically bullish Jupiter/Uranus conjunction in the sky that occurred on April 20.
Saturn is within 2 degrees of the S&P 500’s first-trade Sun from September 9 through January 18, as shown by the larger red box in Figure 3. The market set a record high of 5796 on October 9, within that timeframe. That level is just 20 points beyond the first-trade Moon’s zodiac-conversion-to-price level, often significant to price turns, of 5776.
The third and final pass of Saturn to the S&P 500 Sun occurs on December 20, 2024, which only adds to the day’s potential as a significant market mover. That is the third Friday of the month, so is triple-witching expiration for stock index futures and options as well as stock options. Also, the winter solstice occurs that evening as the Sun enters Capricorn; this is one of 10 days annually that legendary trader W.D. Gann watched for a change of trend.
Summary
Based on how the S&P 500 has performed in previous instances of transiting Saturn’s conjunction to the market’s first-trade Sun, be prepared for a market high near October 10 and December 20 this year that could send the market lower. In previous occurrences since 1965, the market has dropped from 2% to 10% over two to six weeks after these type of connections.